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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 10th, 2023

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  • Years and years ago I built my own 16 bit computer from the nand gates up. ALU, etc, all built from scratch. Wrote the assembler, then wrote a compiler for a lightweight object oriented language. Built the OS, network stack, etc. At the end of the day I had a really neat, absolutely useless computer. The knowledge was what I wanted, not a usable computer.

    Building something actually useful, and modern takes so much more work. I could never even make a dent in the hour, max, I have a day outside of work and family. Plus, I worked in technology for 25 years, ended as director of engineering before fully leaving tech behind and taking a leadership position.

    I’ve done so much tech work. I’m ready to spend my down time in nature, and watching birds, and skiing.


  • So first there is a difference between reduction of meat products and an elimination. Having people consume less meat is good and helpful even if they don’t cut it out completely.

    Second, as a vegetarian, I don’t understand what you mean by producing a bunch of monocultures. Do you think vegans just sit around all day eating avocados? I eat very little dairy or egg, and my diet consists largely of beans, rice, chilli, bread, stir fry, tofu, peanuts/legumes, veggies, baked potatoes, sandwiches, etc. I eat a large variety of staple goods cooked into a variety of dishes from around the world, and classic American fare, just without meat. Avocados and other resource intensive crops like almonds are a minority of my diet by a large margin. Things like beyond meat is also an infrequent treat.

    Edit: here’s a decent article. https://www.nytimes.com/article/plant-based-diet.html

    Generally speaking, a plant-based diet consists largely of vegetables, fruit, beans, legumes, grains and nuts, with little or no meat, dairy or fish.

    Yet another major study has recently been published, showing that eating a plant-based diet is significantly better for the environment than eating a meat-based diet.

    The research, conducted by Oxford University, found that people who follow a meat-free diet are responsible for 75 percent less in greenhouse gas emissions than those who eat meat every day, and that following a low-meat, vegetarian or pescatarian diet is proportionally less detrimental to land, water and biodiversity than a meat-heavy diet.

    Referenced research: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00795-w


  • Some suggestions, either online or local;

    Bookclubs
    Walking groups
    Chess, board games, table top
    Theater groups (meetup groups to go to the theater as a group)
    Escape room group meetups.

    Depending on if you are in a city or a smaller town the locals options will vary. I’d look at meetups site and browse local activities. For most any activity you will find a range of ages, but some will skew more one way than another.

    Best of luck!


  • The article says that steam showing a notice on snap installs that it isn’t an official package and to report errors to snap would be extreme. But that seems pretty reasonable to me, especially since the small package doesn’t include that in its own description. Is there any reason why that would be considered extreme, in the face of higher than normal error rates with the package, and lack of appropriate package description?



  • I look at the long arc of history and see that progress is not monotonic (always increasing or decreasing). We are experiencing setbacks to overcoming our challenges, as have those who came before us. But while we can read about years passing in a paragraph in a history book, we have to live and experience those years. And with all the challenges comes new technology and drive and awareness to solve problems. As unfortunate as it is trouble breeds innovation and commitment to change far better than comfort and easy times.


  • I highly recommend Stephen Tetlock’s book, super forecasting, who is the sponsor of the project you mention.

    One method of forecasting that he identified as effective was using a spreadsheet to record events that might occur over the next 6-18 months along with an initial probability based on good judgement and the factors you quoted. Then, every day look for new information that adjusts the forecast up or down by some, usually small percent. Repeat, and the goal is you will trend towards a reasonable %. I omitted many details but that was the jist.

    Now, that’s for forecasting on a short ish timeframe. There is a place for more open ended reasoning and imagination, but you have to be careful not to fall prey to your own biases.

    This particular forecast of OPs feels like it is ignoring several long running trends in technology adoption and user behavior without giving events that would address them, and forecasts something they care about doing better in the long-term, a source of bias to watch. I tend to agree with you that I think elements of this forecast are flawed.




  • I’ve lived on East and West Coast in the US, visited most states and the places you mention in Canada, and I just moved from Washington to Maryland.

    Realize that everything you listed as a preference is the same for millions of people. Lots of people like paddle boarding, nature, and the cities you are looking at, so those places are going to be expensive. Without knowing more about your acute needs to move I can only give general advice.

    First, don’t move without a job lined up or at least a plan in place. Look at college towns including in more states than you listed. They are more liberal on average, and have a baked in supply of people looking for roommates. Even older grad students are looking for roommates and are often quiet.

    After that, look for things to minimize costs like public transit. You say south of Maryland, but that covers a whole lot including places with pretty bad public transit.

    When you do move make sure you have any vehicle titles or purchase documents as you will need them to get new titles and registration. Update your insurance policy with your new address. Make sure you have your birth certificate, social security cards, and photo id so you can get a place to live and get your new state id. Make sure you know what it costs to do all of that (likely hundreds on the title, registration, new id). Even more if you don’t have one of the necessary documents and you have to pay a notary to send a form to get a new title mailed to you.

    Look at room mate apps or sites to potentially vet a low cost place you can move into more quickly than getting your own place and going through the credit checks and down payments for a lease.

    And look at your credit to make sure you don’t move just to find that you won’t clear the checks they will perform.

    Open a bank account at a bank or credit union with branches where you are moving to, or at least part of a no-fee ATM network. E.g., I can get cash from my credit union account without any fees from 7-11 and they are everywhere.

    Make sure you have a few blank checks on your wallet for oddball expenses or deposits that don’t take cards or have fees to do so. Have a little cash as well.

    Once you have a job planned, costs figured out, make a spreadsheet. MAKE A SPREADSHEET! You do not want to move across the country to find that you didn’t factor state income tax or vehicle registration costs and suddenly can’t make rent. Include all likely costs and see if your budget has some wiggle for miscalculations and other issues.

    Make a spreadsheet of all the tasks you need to do. Keep track of them because the details of moving will screw you hard if you don’t mind them.

    The more money you have while moving, the better you can solve problems. Hard truth for life in general.

    If the above sounds overwhelming, then you need to plan all the more carefully.

    Make sure you don’t make unrealistic assumptions about the culture of where you are moving and get taken advantage of our targeted for violence. Even in the most liberal places there are places and people unfriendly to LGBTQ people. Don’t be a victim.

    Best of luck and happy to answer questions about specific cities, I’ve been to many.



  • I use a terminal whenever I’m doing work that I want to automate, is the only way to do something such as certain parameters being cli only, or when using a GUI would require additional software I don’t otherwise want.

    I play games and generally do rec time in a GUI, but I do all my git and docker work from the cli.


  • Right. Which gets us full circle, to never give investment advice, lol. That being said, at some point someone may sincerely look too you for guidance and you need to make a call as to whether you want to take that risk, what advice you give, and are you sure it is good advice.

    I used to mentor student employees years ago, and when they wanted advice I always told them to max out workplace matches first, and then after that if they can save more, put it in tax advantaged savings programs that let you buy into indexed funds and never sell. In those cases you usually can’t even sell unless certain conditions are met and you sign disclosures, unlike most brokerages. Now, students you are giving them advice for the rest of there life and they likely don’t have $40k to panic sell/buy/sell to zero.




  • Yes, times a thousand. But I would go even further.

    Never give investment advice. You might explain what investments you have made and why you made them, but never give advice and never urge or prompt someone to invest. You should also end every conversation with “but that’s not advice and I’m not an expert.” It is too easy for either the investment to not work out, or for them to do it wrong (wrong timing, panic sale, misunderstood the options, etc).

    The last thing you want on your conscience is someone investing a life changing amount of money just for it to go down in flames. I might invest $1000 in something that I think might pay off, tell someone they should invest, and next thing you know they drop in $40k and panic sell on a dip in two weeks, when I was planning to hold for five years. You never know.