Most of the comments are misinterpreting this graph. OP, you are correct. Homicides are falling year over year. The rate is compared to 2015, not comparing year-to-year.
Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.
According to this graph, homicide was still 15% higher in 2024 compared to 2015 but has fallen year over year from 2021.
Note the axis intercept - “0%” corresponds to the 2015 homicide rate. If a given year were to drop to 0% on this graph, that would not mean it matched the previous year - it would mean the homicide rate matched 2015.
It should be fairly obvious that this graph indicates this. If homicide climbed 10%-50% every year, compound interest would put the homicide rate at well over triple the rate it was in 2015.
Most of the comments are misinterpreting this graph. OP, you are correct. Homicides are falling year over year. The rate is compared to 2015, not comparing year-to-year.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2023-crime-in-the-nation-statistics
According to this graph, homicide was still 15% higher in 2024 compared to 2015 but has fallen year over year from 2021.
Note the axis intercept - “0%” corresponds to the 2015 homicide rate. If a given year were to drop to 0% on this graph, that would not mean it matched the previous year - it would mean the homicide rate matched 2015.
It should be fairly obvious that this graph indicates this. If homicide climbed 10%-50% every year, compound interest would put the homicide rate at well over triple the rate it was in 2015.